Concentration Risk: Are AI-Thematic Funds Just Expensive Tech Proxies?
Holdings overlap in “AI” funds is extreme. Many portfolios marketed as cutting-edge AI plays look suspiciously like rebranded large-cap tech—often with higher fees. Here’s how to tell what you really…
European Banks: Lower Provisions, Lower NIM—Is Fee Income the New Story?
As the European Central Bank (ECB) pivots into an easing phase, net interest margins (NIM) are sliding from 2023’s peaks. With credit costs still benign, banks are leaning harder on…
ASML & the Tool Chain: Can Capacity Keep Up With AI Server Demand?
Order books are swelling across lithography, advanced packaging, and power infrastructure as hyperscalers sprint to build AI capacity. The question for the next 12–18 months isn’t demand—it’s whether the tool…
Europe’s Auto Pivot: Hybrids Surge While EV Growth Slows—Winners in the Supply Chain
Hybrids are quietly taking more share in EU registrations. That reshapes who wins across batteries, power electronics and thermal systems—and what investors, policy-watchers and consumers should watch next.
Earnings Season Reality Check: AI Capex vs. Free Cash Flow—Who’s Stretching?
Hyperscaler spending is exploding, but not every supplier can keep free cash flow (FCF) positive as supply chains tighten. Here’s a sober, data-driven scan of who’s funding the AI build-out…
The Consumer Check-Up: Delinquencies, Excess Savings, and the Holiday-Spending Set-Up
Credit-card and auto delinquencies have been edging higher all year. Does that finally dent consumption in the U.S., U.K., and euro area—or does resilient income and still-elevated savings keep tills…
Jackson Hole Playbook: Three Paths for Real Rates—and What Each Means for Growth
With inflation easing unevenly and policy makers converging on Jackson Hole (Aug. 21–23), the path of real interest rates and the term premium is the macro fulcrum. Where real rates…
Stablecoin Yield Comedown: How Fed/ECB Cuts Could Reshape Reserves & User Returns
If policy rates keep edging lower, the interest that dollar- and euro-stablecoin issuers earn on short-term government paper will shrink. That forces a choice: accept lower margins, tweak fees and…
Copper’s Quiet Squeeze: Why Record-Low Treatment Charges Signal Tight Concentrate
Copper smelters’ treatment and refining charges (TCRCs) have slid toward cycle lows—often a tell that concentrates are scarce and that the refined market could tighten next. Here’s what falling TCRCs…
Hurricane Season Risk Map: LNG & Gasoline If a Category-4 Hits the Gulf
We’re in the teeth of Atlantic hurricane season. One well-placed landfall can jolt U.S. LNG exports and gasoline crack spreads—rippling quickly into Europe’s gas and refined-product markets. NOAA’s updated outlook…